Fertilizer markets under pressure: tight supply, softer prices, and a shifting outlook
In our latest episode, Sam Taylor, Farm Inputs Analyst with RaboResearch, is joined by Justin Ratcliffe, Principal Analyst for Fertilizers at CRU North America, to explore the near-term outlook for global fertilizer markets. Justin leads CRU's North American fertilizer coverage, focusing on pricing, market intelligence, and strategic insights across nitrogen, phosphates, and potash.
Geopolitical disruptions and shifting trade flows continue to shape markets, while affordability pressures and evolving supply dynamics are driving divergence across nutrients. Nitrogen prices have softened amid strong imports and cautious demand, while phosphate markets remain constrained by tight supply and elevated sulfur costs.
The discussion highlights how these dynamics are creating ongoing volatility and uncertainty, with implications for global agricultural productivity over the next 12–24 months.
Time stamps
00:00 – Welcome and introduction
02:30 – Nitrogen reset: geopolitics, supply influx, and demand hesitation drive price correction
12:25 – Nitrogen price outlook
13:50 – Phosphates: tight supply vs. affordability constraints
19:35 – China and supply risk: export uncertainty and tight sulfur supplies
27:25 – Potash: stability and affordability support steady demand
30:00 – Forward risks: policy shifts and "black swan" events with limited market impact amid growing resilience
33:30 – Closing remarks and Kansas City BBQ
If you have any questions you would like for us to consider, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.
Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.
