Recent bullishness in corn and soybean futures has been driven by a tightening balance sheet in both crops. Demand has expanded, and weather in key growing areas has trimmed supply. That weather is now showing up in the USDA crop condition ratings (USDA-NASS, 2026), and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour came in well below USDA on corn (Pro Farmer, 2026), which has set off a good deal of online debate about yield estimation.

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